Earnings · resolved market
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f26c2c251f60e68222b69b9f9637a542c2546a0a6873ee5f581c201a03162ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 16c | 5,653$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.99 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 7c | 2,040$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.77 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 8c | 1,957$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 7c | 1,634$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed No | 8c | 1,357$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed No | 9c | 1,072$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…98ddbacked Yes | 74c | 1,003$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…83efbacked No | 8c | 800$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 8c | 701.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d1f4backed No | 6c | 688.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 76c | 604.62$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed No | 8c | 588.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…85e0backed No | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 536.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 517.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 7c | 499.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…b141backed No | 10c | 446.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 8c | 444.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 7c | 430$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…208cbacked No | 9c | 398.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +161.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 7c | 389.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed No | 9c | 372.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 20c | 367.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…0e46backed No | 8c | 303.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc965…5aeabacked No | 13c | 299.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 7c | 286.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c9…0b9cbacked No | 9c | 244.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +516.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 16c | 237.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 64c | 235.95$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…7622backed No | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 6c | 217.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 13c | 215.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 186.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed No | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 7c | 170.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…daecbacked No | 8c | 158.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x929f…e1a1backed No | 8c | 126.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…250dbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84a…7af3backed Yes | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710f…e69dbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 17c | 78.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37b…e283backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.