Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5eb76e431e7a2c2fd3c9b2505d2bf4036953e068b5d031b985dfeb7af3ba36c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9d5…a7afbacked Yes | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 307.34$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 79c | 266.65$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 17c | 209.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 205.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 187.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 187$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 17c | 184.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 36c | 160$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 157.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed No | 15c | 146.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 143.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 140.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…8cc1backed No | 72c | 137.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 78c | 131.08$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 13c | 129.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 15c | 122.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 67c | 121.57$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 119.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 43c | 117.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 106$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 34c | 100.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 22c | 89.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 83.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 75c | 83.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed No | 24c | 82.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 27c | 82.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 30c | 81.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 80.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 54c | 77.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 59c | 74.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd57b…7358backed No | 69c | 70.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 36c | 68.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 62c | 66.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3514…e337backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 24c | 65.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 61c | 60.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 59.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 59.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 57.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 34c | 54.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e47…bdd1backed No | 73c | 51.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…d99bbacked Yes | 46c | 50.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 54c | 50.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 49.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…42efbacked Yes | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 75c | 47.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 52c | 43.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 59c | 41.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 79c | 41.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 31c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 76c | 36.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 33c | 33.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…4eeebacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18eb…c5fbbacked Yes | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 28.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 75c | 28.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 57c | 28.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 25.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 22.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 67c | 22.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…82b3backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…00acbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…a8b0backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bb…fa91backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 15.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.