Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb991c4417189048cf493596064cffa16c1bee960b16c24bc73ca709859fb14ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17d2…27cdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,181$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 63c | 338.98$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.69 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 57c | 274.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.92 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 56c | 269.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 215.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 190.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 77c | 187.57$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 159.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 48c | 135.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 35c | 126.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 39c | 126.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 117.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 41c | 114.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 113.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 113.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 91.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 90.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 86.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 71c | 83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 81.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…80e5backed Yes | 64c | 79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 53c | 75.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 54c | 74.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 59c | 72.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 62.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 36c | 59.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 50c | 54.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 71c | 52.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 65c | 50.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 20c | 50.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 33c | 46.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 53c | 45.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 63c | 44.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 43.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 53c | 43.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 49c | 41.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…7a46backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 39.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 52c | 38.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 58c | 35.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 38c | 35.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 41c | 35.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…d99bbacked Yes | 33c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 57c | 34.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 46c | 33.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 39c | 32.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 58c | 29.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 45c | 27.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…a5cbbacked No | 59c | 27.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 57c | 25.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ff…e3dfbacked Yes | 63c | 20.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…a606backed No | 61c | 19.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 18.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…dbd8backed Yes | 62c | 17.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 75c | 16.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.