Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say Invade or Invasion during his Iran address on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb9701ee461cddef2344021389ecf280cfc6d9afa2eb28dd38f493acd7130bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 75c | 982.01$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 25c | 604$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 76c | 276.02$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…c0ecbacked Yes | 24c | 246.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…4daabacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e70…52cdbacked Yes | 20c | 122$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x679e…66d1backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f0…73c3backed Yes | 23c | 65.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…53d1backed Yes | 19c | 63.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…cb96backed Yes | 23c | 51.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…a60cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…1490backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say Invade or Invasion during his Iran address on June 21?this page
- Will Trump say Ayatollah or Khamenei during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say B-2 during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Bunker buster during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Fordow during his Iran address on June 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say Make America Great Again during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Netanyahu during his Iran address on June 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say Regime Change during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Reza or Pahlavi during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Surrender during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Uranium during his Iran address on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.