Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say Surrender during his Iran address on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6a52241ae6705800655b218e10616fb5ef170174934cb1e41318a4805fb4c7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f90…38e7backed Yes | 56c | 1,539$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 40c | 1,417$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.96 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…95a1backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed No | 49c | 330$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.5 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed No | 40c | 276.67$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 30c | 142.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…684fbacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348e…265bbacked Yes | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…2433backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed Yes | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…9a00backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…ecf7backed No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f0…73c3backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x695e…585fbacked Yes | 70c | 58.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 31c | 53.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…52e7backed Yes | 64c | 50.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…6b46backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fab…1d0dbacked Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…1490backed Yes | 60c | 33.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…67f4backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2582…e851backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe08b…3a67backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…037cbacked Yes | 60c | 29.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…c0ecbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…d8afbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…e39dbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say Surrender during his Iran address on June 21?this page
- Will Trump say Ayatollah or Khamenei during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say B-2 during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Bunker buster during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Fordow during his Iran address on June 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say Invade or Invasion during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Make America Great Again during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Netanyahu during his Iran address on June 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say Regime Change during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Reza or Pahlavi during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Uranium during his Iran address on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.