Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say Bunker buster during his Iran address on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x437457c60c19ccd52fd2f6b4f77c45f1949e4009895fbb55b1f331b8ac28d6df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 41c | 598$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.76 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 58c | 298$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.76 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…f1b3backed Yes | 70c | 285.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…aa24backed Yes | 73c | 275$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 36c | 238.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…8237backed No | 44c | 229.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 23c | 135$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 50c | 122$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 33c | 101.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7f…9121backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 31c | 89.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0864…b3d0backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 30c | 47.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 56c | 40.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…fa30backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…29cabacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…414cbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…2aaabacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 66cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9284…c44ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say Bunker buster during his Iran address on June 21?this page
- Will Trump say Ayatollah or Khamenei during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say B-2 during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Fordow during his Iran address on June 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say Invade or Invasion during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Make America Great Again during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Netanyahu during his Iran address on June 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say Regime Change during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Reza or Pahlavi during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Surrender during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Uranium during his Iran address on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.