Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say Fordow during his Iran address on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a3a6d0ec65ce4bda74906b99bcd9b35af9cd30624170168d2c2398bec124530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 3c | 2,750$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 8c | 1,486$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 10c | 787.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…4daabacked No | 10c | 416.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2d…1cf4backed No | 9c | 298.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 14c | 229.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…dbbcbacked No | 11c | 187.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…efc0backed No | 11c | 177.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…45c5backed No | 13c | 149.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say Fordow during his Iran address on June 21?this page
- Will Trump say Ayatollah or Khamenei during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say B-2 during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Bunker buster during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Invade or Invasion during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Make America Great Again during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Netanyahu during his Iran address on June 21?Yes won
- Will Trump say Regime Change during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Reza or Pahlavi during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Surrender during his Iran address on June 21?No won
- Will Trump say Uranium during his Iran address on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.