Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb2b13350633ca2de7e71295f986333dbdc9c1d95c1df81e710d6618a9f8de56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 862.93$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 55c | 258.63$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 246.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 57c | 239.37$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.05 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 60c | 234.89$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 53c | 209.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 43c | 174.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 67c | 168.16$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 48c | 114.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 33c | 114.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 46c | 107.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 61c | 99.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 98.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 74.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 73.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 69.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 66c | 68.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 65.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 46c | 61.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…4c2bbacked No | 55c | 59.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 32c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 51.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 71c | 50.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 50.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 42c | 48.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 47.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 46.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 45.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 45c | 44.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 58c | 43.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 51c | 40.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 47c | 40.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 49c | 40.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 36.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 34.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 51c | 30.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 63c | 27.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x841c…f9b8backed No | 61c | 26.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 50c | 25.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 51c | 23.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 46c | 22.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 50c | 22.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 21.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 20.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 67c | 19.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 18.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 16.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…c843backed No | 71c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.