Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59fc33ba73c8f4789d04f184c3c7014b39a1567053e381ecc35a577494d894a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 333.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 8c | 237.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 181.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 162.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 11c | 153.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 22c | 136.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 125.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 76c | 118$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 111.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 11c | 99.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 13c | 93.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 12c | 84.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 18c | 82.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…7d1abacked Yes | 13c | 82.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 14c | 76.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 20c | 76.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 66.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 60.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 57.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 53.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed No | 78c | 53.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 50.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 77c | 49.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 77c | 45.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 43.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 30c | 37.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed No | 71c | 26.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 76c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 78c | 22.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.