Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eed3bda5b12769321836a7dc1388803a41ea20eed7d1349539e4bef3974efcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 258.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 22c | 199.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 197.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 52c | 175$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 171.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 13c | 97.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 32c | 87.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 81.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 27c | 76.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 73.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 77c | 72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 31c | 61.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 59.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 54.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 78c | 52.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 66c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 50.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 50.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed Yes | 43c | 49.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 33c | 48.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 35c | 45.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 57c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 64c | 40.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 65c | 39.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 76c | 39.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 38.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 37.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 35.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 30.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 68c | 28.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 63c | 27.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 77c | 26.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 25.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 76c | 25.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 25.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 59c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 60c | 22.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked No | 70c | 22.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 68c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 68c | 21.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 58c | 20.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c0a7backed No | 80c | 20.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0827…8d36backed Yes | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.