Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad61e97e07d75e6b2029f06f8c6c33dc2e3012a84b71fbb45fb7e8e414e154fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 643.68$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 439.88$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 73c | 297.52$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.65 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 60c | 281.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 63c | 266.54$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.22 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 264$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 70c | 229.02$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 226.53$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 50c | 221.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 11c | 195.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…2fc3backed Yes | 51c | 139.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 36c | 138.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 124.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 122.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 41c | 121.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 66c | 120.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 46c | 112.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…8d87backed Yes | 51c | 104.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 48c | 101$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…f56bbacked No | 73c | 100.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 95.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 93.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 91.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…3082backed Yes | 49c | 79.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 48c | 70.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 67.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked Yes | 77c | 64.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 52c | 64.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 50c | 59.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…fa0ebacked No | 46c | 55.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 35c | 54.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 46.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 45.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 55c | 45.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 49c | 44.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a45…a055backed Yes | 55c | 44.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 44.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 65c | 41.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 44c | 40.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed No | 57c | 39.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 58c | 38.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 29c | 37.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 51c | 35.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed No | 50c | 33.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 33.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 32.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 67c | 29.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 69c | 26.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 46c | 24.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…cda7backed No | 48c | 24.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 75c | 24.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ff…0d46backed No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…172dbacked No | 59c | 22.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 61c | 20.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 59c | 17.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or below on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.