Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52cc0a49e307f6949eff0cca151df313c1f573c2b2dfe988f4c0391cc400570e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 51c | 503.86$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.89 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 60c | 392.44$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.09 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 79c | 329.81$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 317.83$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 260.15$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a18dbacked Yes | 73c | 203.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 200.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 183.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 170.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 21c | 154.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 11c | 135.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 134.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 74c | 132.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 47c | 124.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 25c | 119.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes | 34c | 119.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 15c | 118.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 115.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 92.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 70c | 88.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 64c | 85.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked No | 75c | 80.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 77c | 77.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 47c | 76.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 68.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…ba20backed Yes | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 78c | 58.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 45c | 53.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 48.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 47.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 61c | 47.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 47.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 59c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 25c | 44.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 66c | 42.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 77c | 41.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 35c | 40.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 75c | 39.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed Yes | 61c | 39.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…e522backed Yes | 79c | 39.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 63c | 31.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 55c | 26.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 23.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed No | 59c | 22.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…6f57backed No | 67c | 20.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…b55fbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 18.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc85…9716backed No | 72c | 17.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 16.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 68c | 14.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or below on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.