World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66c382ab70da680672a02803959e18997114eeb0ae07cc7750f8c862100e337a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 662.67$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.46 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 474.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.77 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 405.24$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.72 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 40c | 165.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 78c | 158.36$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 123.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 20c | 99.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +121%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 99.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 95.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 25c | 93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 12c | 92.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 26c | 88.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 79.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 53c | 77.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 38c | 64.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 39c | 49.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 48c | 49.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 50c | 41.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 45c | 33.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 26.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 77c | 25.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 24.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 23.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 78c | 19.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 15.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.