World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01a8828060954044b1055e39913abd7cc7edc1af67c2ac3e0441d07f90fc64a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 399.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 188.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 78c | 126.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 15 | 100%15 W · 0 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 72c | 102.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 102.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 102.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 32c | 65.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 50.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 40.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 36c | 36.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 69c | 33.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 66c | 25.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 50c | 20.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 64c | 20.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 64c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 16.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 72c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 72c | 14.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.