Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f636e9f43163c41dfa5482da10e1a742273283334c848b3b9d7d6bb2b6ea4a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 34c | 1,906$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.83 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 54c | 569.44$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.77 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 564.25$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 466.76$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.39 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 383$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.78 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 317.78$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 5c | 306.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 42c | 304.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.98 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 39c | 283.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 265.28$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 42c | 239.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.3 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 50c | 197$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 193.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 78c | 188.5$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 161.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 144.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 129$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked No | 57c | 124.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 124$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 119.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 119.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 118.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 109.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 107$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 47c | 105.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed Yes | 35c | 103.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 41c | 102.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 59c | 102.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…23debacked No | 52c | 96.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 49c | 96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…8487backed No | 56c | 86.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 54c | 80.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000b…cf3cbacked Yes | 37c | 79.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 79.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 66c | 78.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 27c | 69.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 67.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 66.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 39c | 63.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 48c | 60.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked No | 50c | 50.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 75c | 50.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 51c | 49.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 66c | 47.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 47.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 78c | 46.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 41.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…8ed9backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 43c | 40.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 38.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 51c | 37.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 63c | 37.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 35.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 49c | 34.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 33.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 32.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 39c | 31.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 51c | 29.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 37c | 29.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 50c | 28.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 41c | 26.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 57c | 26.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 64c | 24.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 62c | 22.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 58c | 19.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 73c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…ca54backed Yes | 78c | 17.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…1fe2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 15.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.