Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x119aa3d8ff3cb1f42e1d16a70c18270b0c916a8d925316306c6b00397f6f82fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 4,857$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 31c | 1,527$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.68 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 18c | 409.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 315.12$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…8ed9backed Yes | 13c | 306.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 33c | 299.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 13c | 253.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 241.35$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 240.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 15c | 197.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 196.18$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 187.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 175$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 24c | 166.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 70c | 142.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 139.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 18c | 137.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 136$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 124.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 109$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 14c | 101.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 85.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 37c | 82.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 66.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 74c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 78c | 60.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 31c | 55.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 24c | 53.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 44.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 78c | 22.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 70c | 14.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.