Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bd49c2df56df4c84d422b737ee42629c99e5cb7611cd378b79f9ba49366635b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 1,016$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 68c | 758.93$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.35 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 23c | 649.35$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.38 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 622.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 512.39$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 27c | 423.18$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked No | 80c | 343.9$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 296.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 22c | 293.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 273.45$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 259.84$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 246.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 204.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.44 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 36c | 201$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 32c | 197$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 29c | 190.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 175$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 23c | 142.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 134.94$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 13c | 133.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 62c | 108.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 19c | 107.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…c80ebacked Yes | 31c | 101.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd20e…b050backed No | 75c | 96.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +68%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 70c | 85.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes | 36c | 83.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 83.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 80.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 77.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 30c | 75.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 64.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1325…8fd1backed Yes | 22c | 58.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 55.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 54.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 31c | 50.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 50.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 80c | 42.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 37.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 55c | 34.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 70c | 34.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 71c | 33.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 28.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…e2b4backed No | 74c | 27.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 25.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 70c | 24.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3933…026bbacked No | 80c | 23.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6e…70fabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 19.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.