Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ce24aa05b0f167611f82fa1a50b87b5a5e9f349a9715ea548e59a43895fbb3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 43c | 1,268$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.58 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 2c | 1,197$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 39c | 739.67$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.25 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 670.83$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 643.69$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 595.75$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 47c | 435.61$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.65 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 432.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 76c | 386.01$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 378.94$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 377.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 45c | 358.59$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.86 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 315.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 35c | 264.83$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.08 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 51c | 249.21$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.19 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 243.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 214.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 70c | 213.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 53c | 209.36$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 42c | 205.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 192.25$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 9c | 189.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 187$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 22c | 184.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 183.49$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 173.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 59c | 169.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 55c | 168.06$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.93 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 37c | 165.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…1ddfbacked No | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 155.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6295…6286backed No | 67c | 147.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 139.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.23 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed No | 63c | 135$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 132.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 132$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 126.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 123.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 122.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 119.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 71c | 115.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 105$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 58c | 101.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 101.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 22c | 85.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 40c | 82.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…2322backed No | 63c | 79.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 53c | 75.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 72.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 68.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 67.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 21c | 64.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 63.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…e428backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…ac42backed No | 23c | 59.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 35c | 57.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 36c | 55.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 58c | 52.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 51.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 60c | 49.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 34c | 48.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 68c | 48.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 42c | 47.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 63c | 47.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 38c | 45.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 57c | 42.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 43c | 39.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 55c | 39.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 39.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fed…e9cabacked No | 52c | 39.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…3703backed No | 64c | 37.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 35c | 36.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 36.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 36.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 34c | 35.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 70c | 35.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 41c | 35.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 51c | 34.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 63c | 33.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 42c | 32.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked No | 65c | 30.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 30.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…5c83backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.