Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5bc79fa4614809a9740e3645c0ac5fd42faaea161140fd7806662bc7809c8be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 1,873$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 34c | 1,659$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.14 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe532…f9b9backed Yes | 43c | 817.04$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 55c | 700$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.05 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 603.66$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 26c | 600$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.47 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 587.14$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 580.63$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 507.22$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 441$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 34c | 400$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.04 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 384.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 377.12$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 56c | 363.04$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.74 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 356$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 350.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 332.31$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 62c | 304.33$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.98 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 30c | 299.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 281.47$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 21c | 271.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 255$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0773…5c82backed Yes | 41c | 216.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 33c | 202.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 41c | 170.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 157.69$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 149.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 148.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 38c | 147.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 140.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 69c | 137$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed Yes | 8c | 135.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes | 22c | 131.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed Yes | 8c | 127.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 48c | 122.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 19c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 119.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 25c | 114.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 109.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 41c | 109.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 55c | 108$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 102.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 99.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 99.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 14c | 90.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 59c | 90.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 89.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 87.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 39c | 78.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 16c | 77.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 27c | 77.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 75.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 74.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 25c | 73.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 40c | 71.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 71.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 29c | 69.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 32c | 67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes | 40c | 63.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 26c | 62.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 58.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 55.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 55.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 34c | 54.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 31c | 52.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…f2cdbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 72c | 48.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 66c | 46.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 45.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 45.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 40c | 43.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 27c | 42.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 67c | 42.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…3307backed Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 32c | 40.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 46c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 39.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 45c | 39.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 33c | 38.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 34c | 33.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 53c | 32.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.