TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$977,803
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$705,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $977,803 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefcb…94e1backed Yes4c82,306$3,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,625.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes16c46,176$7,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,579.152528%7 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes0c34,570$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.461879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes12c34,072$3,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,926.363215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f9…e3e3backed Yes4c26,898$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e31…901ebacked Yes17c25,928$4,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.34119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-76.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8b…a230backed Yes4c25,360$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b5…dcd8backed Yes4c24,410$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2387…fba2backed Yes4c23,812$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc762…a47ebacked Yes4c22,950$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3356…4287backed Yes4c22,892$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed Yes11c21,421$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.911136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0f…9d9fbacked Yes4c20,898$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1773…9235backed Yes4c20,850$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7e…ff2cbacked Yes4c20,636$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes12c16,796$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.27413.5%10 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc3…eb31backed Yes4c15,590$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No80c15,359$12,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,128.394650%23 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5714…c680backed Yes20c12,892$2,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.822544%11 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes12c12,599$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.7360%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes13c10,215$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.361118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11fc…dc48backed Yes19c9,079$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,694.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes4c7,845$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.2213419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22b…f557backed Yes5c7,192$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db1…46a4backed Yes23c6,908$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.752634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x277b…31fabacked Yes12c6,374$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.642321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x707c…995fbacked Yes17c5,137$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes14c5,121$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.67323.3%17 W · 56 L-7.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-56.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c4,849$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.1942120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Yes23c4,641$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.423542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f22…6112backed Yes19c4,522$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.63633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff9b…0245backed Yes11c4,518$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x922f…69d4backed Yes10c4,044$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes15c3,981$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.523030%9 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes16c2,907$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.249642.7%41 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22c3…289cbacked Yes17c2,772$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.522842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c3…2783backed Yes14c2,716$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38170%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c2,579$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.972078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ec8…8e90backed Yes20c2,030$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.8147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c62…44b4backed Yes23c1,953$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No79c1,936$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.5735347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54bb…35e5backed Yes14c1,836$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.26825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes22c1,823$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.1743212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes10c1,822$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.124425%11 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes18c1,812$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32633337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed Yes14c1,771$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6526…cb35backed Yes11c1,769$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53d3…60eebacked Yes12c1,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003330.3%10 W · 23 L-7.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-45.1%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xfe2a…9835backed Yes12c1,599$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3084…40eabacked Yes17c1,511$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes3c1,469$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.09147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-90.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes5c1,423$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.212030%6 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c21…e775backed Yes17c1,322$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.31650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+60%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4760…0a49backed No77c1,318$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.692181%17 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.29per pick52cpaid+55.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes13c1,288$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.55425.9%14 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe99c…725ebacked Yes25c1,283$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.181225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes17c1,220$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.5113629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes9c1,211$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.559711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes6c1,200$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c1,149$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4589617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4785…cdfdbacked Yes16c1,100$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4418…b4dfbacked Yes14c1,042$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c62…7c5cbacked Yes25c1,016$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cd7…0643backed Yes14c1,013$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed No67c1,000$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.216543.1%28 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12017931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c9…22d8backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c46…c1d3backed Yes2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…c09fbacked Yes15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes11c999.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1109831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ad…a218backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes9c900$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-57.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x36ae…3567backed Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004022.5%9 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-39.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x023c…13fdbacked Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1937…d1ebbacked Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x648a…94cbbacked Yes9c800$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722722.2%6 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+162.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No80c795.33$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.9731649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0d…32f3backed Yes7c784.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.141233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea1…adccbacked Yes17c748.89$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12950%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes11c746.34$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.17538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes10c740.48$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.052128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc032…6668backed Yes17c727$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.821323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+62.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa116…6f3bbacked Yes16c720.41$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-81.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x326d…ec8fbacked Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa656…309cbacked Yes12c665.93$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.471428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes4c641.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed Yes11c637.58$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.615747.4%27 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes16c631.44$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4417929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed4…feedbacked Yes21c631.34$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes25c600$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b36…0800backed Yes18c566.67$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b70…03a7backed Yes21c564.86$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea7…5af6backed Yes12c542.83$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick40cpaid-64.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xceab…96a0backed Yes16c515.31$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.66742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5770…bafcbacked No79c508.57$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes11c508.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9229129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2633…67b1backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.