Champions League · resolved market
Will a club from Spain win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a75e13c773a6b0987c9bde0a4b2f48176f0068cbd17601dd9a4820250cd4b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,512$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…6e7abacked Yes | 27c | 2,782$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Yes | 35c | 1,970$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.9 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 74c | 1,828$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.68 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 1,379$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.71 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 71c | 1,255$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.13 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,040$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.84 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7beb…70aebacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 27c | 601.85$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked No | 71c | 497$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -72%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 65c | 409.83$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…895ebacked Yes | 29c | 376.67$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 19c | 268.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed No | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 31c | 203.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…48a1backed Yes | 26c | 191.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…d646backed No | 72c | 162.18$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…d3ddbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x728a…3651backed Yes | 17c | 129.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…b55fbacked Yes | 25c | 106.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f3…7506backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 33c | 76.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2d…babfbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…725ebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 70c | 19.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a club from Spain win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will a club from Brazil win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from England win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?Yes won
- Will a club from France win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from Germany win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from Italy win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from Saudi Arabia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from the United States win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.