Champions League · resolved market
Will a club from France win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6284b5f0da3e39ce9948ba5ff6cff1270bec2d96af6b2e41db94d0aed819a733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 74c | 3,662$2,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,708.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 75c | 2,982$2,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.04 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 26c | 2,896$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,143.37 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 21c | 2,499$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.95 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked Yes | 63c | 2,339$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -72%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 27c | 2,124$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.18 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Yes | 39c | 2,005$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.81 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15e…972fbacked Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…d646backed Yes | 56c | 1,611$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.99 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 74c | 591.91$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 39c | 505.5$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.03 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…4347backed No | 55c | 492.09$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…e309backed Yes | 78c | 457.81$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.03 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 73c | 442$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed No | 73c | 328$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 25c | 320.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…2b71backed Yes | 75c | 277.63$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90c…9833backed Yes | 74c | 247.27$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb47…c6e8backed Yes | 74c | 243.24$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc32b…d463backed No | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…1959backed Yes | 74c | 166.16$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 58c | 159.03$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…0e3fbacked Yes | 74c | 139.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828f…fa80backed Yes | 75c | 134$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…d6bcbacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x434f…7d13backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Yes | 44c | 119.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 15c | 116.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +11.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 27c | 100.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 38.1%59 W · 96 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…1c9ebacked No | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…d14bbacked Yes | 70c | 86.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ab…e7b6backed Yes | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…a900backed Yes | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f0…1981backed Yes | 74c | 75.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked Yes | 41c | 73.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…34d2backed Yes | 75c | 72.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…3ef9backed Yes | 74c | 66.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9543…66e9backed Yes | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…515fbacked No | 26c | 48.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…4188backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…58d9backed Yes | 28c | 45.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83cc…bd5cbacked No | 26c | 44.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…9354backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d86…6a3fbacked Yes | 74c | 30.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…66c5backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…6f17backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca2…7134backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…3bd3backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…773fbacked Yes | 74c | 19.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…1882backed Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a club from France win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will a club from Brazil win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from England win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?Yes won
- Will a club from Germany win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from Italy win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from Saudi Arabia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from Spain win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from the United States win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.