Champions League · resolved market
Will a club from Germany win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca5e7d62c222c023c1848e603ad39be244d8b3c2826a76d0443d14814c4c22e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 24c | 266.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…48a1backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae12…cbd0backed No | 75c | 254.76$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 202$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…58d9backed Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca7e…68b8backed Yes | 20c | 75.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x670c…04a3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 76c | 45.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a club from Germany win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will a club from Brazil win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from England win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?Yes won
- Will a club from France win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from Italy win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from Saudi Arabia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from Spain win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from the United States win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.