Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaad5fe51abb9e3bc4ac8382720b352ac55be10ae63d184756b59dcb54171c7b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 10c | 5,196$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.55 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 20c | 2,138$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.08 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 2,136$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 27c | 2,060$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.92 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 1,535$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 1,006$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.45 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 18c | 936.9$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.86 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 34c | 800.01$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.34 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 795.07$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 21c | 779.45$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.24 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 16c | 743.49$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.51 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 13c | 738.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 716.71$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.94 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 15c | 643.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 23c | 543.29$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 536$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 30c | 509.18$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.02 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 21c | 442.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 421$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 5c | 400.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 37c | 374.08$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 363.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 359.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 28c | 358.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 348$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 23c | 310.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 27c | 296.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 27c | 294.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 33c | 292.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.37 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 290$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 285.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 22c | 283.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 281.55$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 275.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 270.05$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 267.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 263.8$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 258$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 249.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 236.3$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed08…ed3bbacked Yes | 43c | 233.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 7c | 229.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 26c | 226$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 210.7$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 209.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 22c | 201.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 13c | 200.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 198.59$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 196$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 195.54$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 195.29$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 6c | 193.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 66c | 189.45$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 55c | 185.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 20c | 180.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 180.72$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 19c | 179.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ae…8349backed Yes | 42c | 174.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…16d1backed Yes | 17c | 168.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…1730backed No | 60c | 158.82$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 151.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 16c | 150.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 30c | 143.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 139.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 30c | 135$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 130.54$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 24c | 115.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 22c | 113.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked No | 64c | 111.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 12c | 110.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 38c | 106.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 19c | 105.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407f…af99backed Yes | 29c | 103.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 69c | 103.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 101.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 30c | 101.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab61…fb2bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 39c | 97.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 45c | 96.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 31c | 96.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 90.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 57c | 83.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 27c | 76.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed Yes | 38c | 74.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 20c | 72.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 27c | 71.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 70.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 70c | 70.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.