Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7552191128597a7b9c066d67f5cc0eed57e2767deed2db75708820acbad2653a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 1c | 9,206$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 6,220$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bf0ebacked Yes | 12c | 3,525$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 11c | 3,032$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.12 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 9c | 2,478$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.75 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,256$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 10c | 891.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 10c | 801.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 6c | 775.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 4c | 754.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…5dd7backed Yes | 3c | 706.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 73c | 686.71$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.41 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 657.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 611.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 44c | 502.88$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.59 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 9c | 487.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 4c | 482.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 4c | 467.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 15c | 458.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 387.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 23c | 374.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 8c | 363.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 5c | 355.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 355.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 344$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 7c | 337.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 24c | 329.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…e786backed Yes | 5c | 316.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 308.83$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 80c | 307.32$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 7c | 280.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 10c | 279$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 265.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 10c | 245.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 5c | 234.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed No | 72c | 209.46$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…9021backed Yes | 6c | 204.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 12c | 202.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 190.79$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 42c | 190.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 14c | 182$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 17c | 180.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 176.3$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 9c | 161.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 10c | 157.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…16d1backed Yes | 47c | 144.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 18c | 138$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 41c | 127.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 22c | 120.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 9c | 119.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 117.54$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 110.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…c922backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 55c | 92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…4e03backed No | 79c | 89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 88.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 43c | 74.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 71c | 74.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 18c | 63.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 30c | 62.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…f7f3backed Yes | 27c | 51.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 47c | 50.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 38c | 40.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 80c | 36.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 48c | 30.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…ef6bbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…00b7backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked Yes | 51c | 27.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…8ab9backed No | 53c | 24.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 70c | 20.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 59c | 17.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 73c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.