Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa07ce5093451c639a209fbb6aa1adf54cbf4d62df8ff6771eac131f6e7aadec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 65c | 1,692$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.21 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 1,525$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.08 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 1,258$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 1,153$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 78c | 1,082$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.41 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 25c | 1,053$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.46 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 25c | 984.17$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.53 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 32c | 976.2$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.88 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 61c | 916.29$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.22 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 52c | 912.57$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.9 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 19c | 800.55$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.41 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 72c | 736.31$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.53 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 68c | 709.59$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 16c | 656.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.09 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 31c | 640$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.2 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 632.43$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.04 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 15c | 626.8$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.51 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 23c | 593.94$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.39 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 72c | 580.32$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.46 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 49c | 531.34$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 521.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 17c | 463$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 50c | 455.03$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.03 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 54c | 370.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.21 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 357.97$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 354.02$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 14c | 348.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 335.42$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 74c | 329.8$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 49c | 319.92$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.32 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…fff1backed Yes | 72c | 304.54$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 38c | 303.07$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 26c | 301.31$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.97 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 49c | 300.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.59 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 299.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.73 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 41c | 298.41$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.06 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 40c | 294.52$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 19c | 286.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.4 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…16d1backed Yes | 63c | 276.68$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 75c | 267.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 41c | 262.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.73 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 260$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.35 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 49c | 238.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.58 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 31c | 237.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 236.3$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 17c | 230.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.48 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 230$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 226.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 55c | 226.05$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 23c | 219.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.99 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 25c | 216.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 214.84$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 72c | 205.92$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…2b7bbacked Yes | 48c | 203.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 37c | 203.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…b46abacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 199$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 196.34$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 188.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…8e63backed No | 67c | 181$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 17c | 176.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.73 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…00f1backed Yes | 66c | 161.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 159.05$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 10c | 149.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.1 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 17c | 147.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.89 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 27c | 145.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 8c | 143.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 30c | 143.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.52 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked No | 33c | 139$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 62c | 136.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 61c | 132.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 34c | 131.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…e209backed Yes | 64c | 124.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…e28ebacked Yes | 71c | 124.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 17c | 117.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 21c | 116.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 36c | 116.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 112.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 75c | 108.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed Yes | 61c | 108.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 16c | 106.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 30c | 105.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 101.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 18c | 101.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 14c | 99.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 31c | 98.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 82.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 44c | 80.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…128cbacked Yes | 37c | 80.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…f7f3backed Yes | 44c | 80.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…8ab9backed Yes | 57c | 76.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 26c | 76.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 53c | 73.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 28c | 71.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.