Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ebd543341da2381459337bbe452d43674979b88f40c22bdb64a8388d67fedfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 8c | 1,516$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 1,287$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 1,224$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,169$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,096$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 3c | 803.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 2c | 688$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 2c | 545.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 515.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 460.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 386.3$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 15c | 374.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…4527backed Yes | 4c | 374.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 363.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407f…af99backed Yes | 34c | 344.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 35c | 301.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 15c | 292.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 66c | 269.17$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 262.45$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 15c | 261.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 244.85$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 241.06$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 77c | 238.69$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 236.3$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 10c | 226.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 10c | 220$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 20c | 175.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 21c | 162.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 34c | 149.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 68c | 139.48$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 36c | 139.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 133.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 9c | 133.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 15c | 132.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 16c | 126.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed Yes | 16c | 113.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 113.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 17c | 112.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 36c | 112.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 9c | 112.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab61…fb2bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 94.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 85.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 83.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 77.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 15c | 67.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 71c | 62.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed Yes | 35c | 60.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 76c | 56.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 54.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 71c | 39.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 34c | 37.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 33c | 35.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 34.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 31.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 36c | 28.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 25.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 68c | 16.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…81dcbacked No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.