Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6ab1d66e539eb9ad30d5caf3ba4930dea8cd4f56dcadf29607d3c0e3afd7040
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 752.06$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 341.13$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 314.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 5c | 228.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 224.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 77c | 208$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 14c | 203.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.74 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked Yes | 16c | 194.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.22 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 158.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 155.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 17c | 154.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 22c | 124.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 113.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked Yes | 34c | 89.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…0858backed Yes | 20c | 81.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 73c | 72.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 26c | 66.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 76c | 60.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 59.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…1439backed Yes | 39c | 51.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 50.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 48.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 42.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 31c | 40.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 76c | 36.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 35.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 35.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 70c | 28.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 26.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 48c | 25.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 19.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 71c | 14.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.