Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3da8ac5a617e2b32fbda49cbc5060917ab770abe9f74b11ffa36dcdb5b7a1195
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,164,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,051,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,164,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 649 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 9c | 177,084$16,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,415.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…9469backed No | 0c | 149,794$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.79 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…96a8backed No | 9c | 109,820$9,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,811.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed No | 6c | 74,383$4,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,489.16 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 20c | 63,086$12,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,768.73 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked No | 73c | 40,707$29,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,858.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed No | 12c | 40,088$4,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,687.55 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 8c | 37,733$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.68 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e3…4eecbacked No | 11c | 36,510$4,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,178.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…9edabacked No | 1c | 20,785$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…185cbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…2d8dbacked No | 12c | 18,500$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 17,904$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.97 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 12c | 16,583$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 23c | 16,448$3,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,792.05 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 59c | 16,000$9,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,581.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 22c | 15,637$3,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,439.83 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…4206backed Yes | 78c | 15,452$12,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,348.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed No | 0c | 13,972$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc32c…4130backed No | 1c | 12,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 51c | 11,966$6,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,832.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…22ccbacked No | 3c | 11,930$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 34c | 11,632$3,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,987.7 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 70c | 11,622$8,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,496.72 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…1ebcbacked No | 2c | 9,568$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…44f1backed No | 0c | 8,753$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…b99cbacked No | 12c | 8,585$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 23c | 8,221$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 59c | 8,110$4,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,287.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…4a00backed Yes | 37c | 7,942$2,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,013.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…9ff3backed No | 2c | 7,916$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ed…cfc6backed No | 2c | 7,203$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 11c | 7,177$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 50c | 7,102$3,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,558.7 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Yes | 59c | 6,734$4,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,732.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 18c | 6,578$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.31 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 30c | 6,111$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.88 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 63c | 5,694$3,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.43 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,644$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…f310backed No | 0c | 5,583$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 5,533$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.3 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 73c | 5,477$4,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 10c | 5,414$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.76 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 39c | 5,172$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +156%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b171backed No | 2c | 5,139$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 41c | 4,688$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,789.05 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8615…d10abacked No | 3c | 4,668$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99b…0443backed Yes | 61c | 4,619$2,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,793.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 45c | 4,473$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 21c | 4,471$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.98 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…8d93backed No | 2c | 4,373$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 23c | 4,189$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…02b7backed No | 9c | 4,010$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb14f…d825backed Yes | 73c | 3,998$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 67c | 3,985$2,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 23c | 3,972$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.96 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x619d…124dbacked No | 3c | 3,775$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 12c | 3,500$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,080 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +246.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeeb…1038backed No | 0c | 3,490$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 47c | 3,454$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.91 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -13.0wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 26c | 3,165$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.06 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…50c9backed No | 12c | 3,137$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…3dc8backed No | 2c | 3,040$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec0…04a9backed No | 64c | 3,036$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed No | 7c | 3,000$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.34 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b2…989cbacked No | 12c | 3,000$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f9…6910backed Yes | 62c | 2,964$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 78c | 2,944$2,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.27 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 25c | 2,926$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.92 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…23bfbacked No | 2c | 2,903$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…67debacked No | 25c | 2,900$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 77c | 2,893$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.44 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0740…8a92backed No | 1c | 2,810$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 28c | 2,804$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.69 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…8f06backed Yes | 78c | 2,800$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…f7c4backed No | 10c | 2,646$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…7061backed No | 17c | 2,617$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 75c | 2,579$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.65 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…6c2ebacked No | 1c | 2,562$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 55c | 2,322$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…92bebacked No | 2c | 2,309$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…5218backed No | 23c | 2,204$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 62c | 2,199$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.55 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…3a8cbacked No | 2c | 2,133$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…6c42backed No | 12c | 2,100$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…0074backed No | 2c | 2,074$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 34c | 2,066$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.94 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 68c | 2,034$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 12c | 2,012$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.52 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 22c | 2,010$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.43 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…2419backed No | 1c | 2,004$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 1,954$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed No | 26c | 1,893$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 3c | 1,856$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed Yes | 55c | 1,844$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 21c | 1,799$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.59 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8937…80d9backed No | 23c | 1,776$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?this page
- Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.