Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb0f640f8e6979495efb462bca18e491a8624c07aecd89b9cea0ba62a4164226
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,986,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,780,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,986,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 621 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 1c | 90,670$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.73 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 81,267$3,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400.75 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 62c | 68,304$42,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,902.92 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f69…78e2backed No | 2c | 62,278$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c59…ab67backed No | 0c | 61,245$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 25c | 54,376$13,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,339.29 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d95…937bbacked No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02b…ab4fbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1829…1165backed No | 2c | 49,882$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…d1a2backed No | 0c | 45,890$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…fa31backed No | 35c | 45,452$15,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,954.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…1430backed No | 46c | 35,853$16,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,631.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…a2fabacked No | 1c | 33,418$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed No | 0c | 30,468$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…e660backed No | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…ec48backed No | 0c | 26,578$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed No | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5db…f982backed No | 0c | 24,825$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 57c | 22,435$12,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,704.71 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 0c | 21,850$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…4419backed No | 0c | 17,200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7950…1d42backed No | 18c | 16,916$3,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,068.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed3…0527backed No | 0c | 16,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…3d81backed No | 0c | 16,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…96a8backed No | 42c | 16,000$6,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,720 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 6c | 15,080$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0875…646bbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…4deebacked No | 1c | 14,610$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f3…bf0fbacked No | 0c | 14,480$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2d…8ae7backed No | 0c | 14,012$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 27c | 13,766$3,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,755.94 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…319bbacked No | 1c | 13,608$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…4206backed Yes | 73c | 12,245$8,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,345.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…00b8backed No | 0c | 12,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…783dbacked No | 0c | 12,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…c8d1backed No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 11,199$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 52c | 11,055$5,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,756.83 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d1…56ddbacked No | 1c | 10,907$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…1c78backed No | 1c | 10,392$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 0c | 10,110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…a94dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…d711backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…252ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…6700backed No | 0c | 9,676$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…c312backed No | 1c | 9,503$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed No | 0c | 9,161$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…5226backed Yes | 67c | 8,661$5,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,866.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 27c | 8,000$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,151.81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9643…08cebacked No | 1c | 7,968$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000e…8f8fbacked No | 1c | 7,758$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…4081backed No | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…98b1backed No | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…0b1cbacked No | 1c | 7,143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1e…f4cbbacked No | 0c | 7,095$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…6b02backed No | 2c | 7,029$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…2927backed No | 37c | 6,696$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eec…bb66backed No | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked No | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec0…04a9backed No | 67c | 6,399$4,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,258.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 44c | 6,161$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…975cbacked No | 1c | 6,134$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8a76backed Yes | 66c | 6,115$4,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…e02fbacked No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 5c | 5,965$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…2f38backed No | 0c | 5,891$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 1c | 5,517$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…de80backed No | 1c | 5,231$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…5a6abacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…9ff3backed No | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…bbacbacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…731dbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c4…e06abacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019b…960abacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…f323backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…22c1backed No | 2c | 4,972$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…f310backed No | 1c | 4,846$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa394…89e9backed No | 23c | 4,800$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc70f…5de7backed No | 1c | 4,772$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…7688backed No | 0c | 4,765$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b89…84ffbacked No | 1c | 4,650$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d043backed No | 12c | 4,601$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…271bbacked No | 0c | 4,460$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…93efbacked No | 50c | 4,352$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe971…e480backed No | 0c | 4,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 23c | 4,271$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 45c | 4,229$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.11 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked No | 7c | 4,200$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 43c | 4,036$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.52 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…bbcbbacked No | 0c | 4,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…c7efbacked No | 1c | 3,938$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f5…3fd2backed No | 1c | 3,931$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 80c | 3,920$3,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.13 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 22c | 3,900$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.68 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 72c | 3,897$2,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.34 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7c…acc0backed No | 0c | 3,870$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…3d87backed No | 1c | 3,843$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?this page
- Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.