Us Politics · resolved market

Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc9ae8cac40513971ac0c670c9ca7ad90088b1ab0c173ab6a65a96229040af80

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $424,934
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $406,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,934 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8e1c…cf5dbacked No	1c	24,390$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f1e…ccb0backed No	5c	15,699$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750.12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31e3…4eecbacked No	11c	11,561$1,249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,249.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed No	0c	11,086$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.09	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb301…79ddbacked No	1c	9,445$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.29	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11f5…3fd2backed No	0c	8,836$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	1c	8,544$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.49	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18e2…9469backed No	1c	8,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d62…4efcbacked No	0c	8,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6dc…9fd0backed No	0c	7,899$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc70f…5de7backed No	1c	7,597$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34c0…ebf0backed No	1c	7,494$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No	3c	5,811$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.7	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5db…f982backed No	0c	4,942$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50bd…185cbacked No	1c	4,318$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.86	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf44…1694backed No	1c	4,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d01…75f1backed No	1c	3,748$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6501…bab6backed No	1c	3,333$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff69…bd15backed No	1c	3,300$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x104f…6b02backed No	3c	3,017$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.95	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81c2…9ff3backed No	2c	2,743$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5e…ae65backed No	0c	2,595$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…6c2ebacked No	1c	2,462$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd019…681fbacked No	1c	2,345$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79bf…96a8backed No	5c	2,323$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.57	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cc4…f310backed No	1c	2,275$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No	11c	2,200$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.22	101	45.5%46 W · 55 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5000…6944backed No	1c	2,198$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed No	1c	1,802$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No	10c	1,714$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.16	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No	12c	1,696$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.2	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5853…144dbacked No	1c	1,695$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77f3…ea98backed No	1c	1,450$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77a0…7fd7backed No	11c	1,444$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.32	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No	2c	1,360$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.18	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+75.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No	2c	1,300$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+61.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No	2c	1,201$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.81	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No	2c	1,200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	37	2.7%1 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5e…2a5cbacked No	2c	1,175$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.51	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x549b…b127backed No	14c	1,142$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd3…447fbacked No	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No	1c	999.95$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	76	5.3%4 W · 72 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ad…8ef7backed No	4c	892.78$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa45…2e20backed No	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee6…7634backed No	11c	545.45$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No	3c	518.65$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.51	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed No	3c	506.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.24per pick	9cpaid	+440.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No	4c	500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No	5c	447$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.35	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-47%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb252…cfd4backed No	4c	426.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked No	39c	426.64$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.85	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd53…933cbacked No	5c	400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x562b…a3cbbacked No	12c	333.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-73.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x194e…1833backed No	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	10c	301.04$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No	13c	230$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.05	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd9…2c47backed No	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98f8…fcaebacked No	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2301…d847backed No	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe474…9b56backed No	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bef…9080backed No	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d38…de7ebacked No	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb19e…b2edbacked No	7c	187.09$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	8c	135.11$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2b5a…2e45backed Yes	79c	92$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.72	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?this page
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event