Us Politics · resolved market

Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2cf2ac9bf4caf3995f8d8ff4649688430c6733df13ab2d03e3e0756f36f2acb

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,157,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,026,565

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,157,027 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 466 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	5c	45,087$2,433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,432.93	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes	3c	27,282$727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$727.04	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.20per pick	26cpaid	-76%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	1c	27,084$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.2	110	10%11 W · 99 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes	2c	19,138$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.45	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83d0…aa0abacked Yes	0c	15,685$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	15,500$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes	4c	15,000$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes	3c	15,000$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.42	115	41.7%48 W · 67 L	+7.0wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbea1…7453backed Yes	7c	12,825$835 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$835	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x691f…41a1backed Yes	6c	12,661$776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$776.37	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe7b…3303backed Yes	5c	12,067$632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.1	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6337…62c5backed Yes	4c	11,282$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes	0c	11,111$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+4.5wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x48f8…7febbacked No	66c	10,800$7,128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,672	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	5c	10,426$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.74	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4262…d125backed Yes	9c	10,286$935 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$934.67	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-77.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x581c…b4cdbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	2c	9,617$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes	12c	9,534$1,182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,181.53	192	36.5%70 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	4c	9,311$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.7	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes	6c	9,220$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.5	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c1a…8917backed Yes	2c	9,079$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd194…d3f8backed Yes	7c	8,753$652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$651.65	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x663d…7d23backed Yes	4c	8,346$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.1	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes	5c	7,876$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.26	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+88.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	46c	7,725$3,573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,572.63	103	24.3%25 W · 78 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02e8…d63ebacked Yes	2c	7,700$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.4	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.27per pick	13cpaid	+172.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b15…4c0fbacked Yes	7c	7,107$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7687…2524backed Yes	1c	7,091$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	4c	6,958$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.42	355	19.7%70 W · 285 L	-16.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe714…d510backed No	66c	6,778$4,460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,317.69	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	47cpaid	-48%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9460…7b3cbacked Yes	5c	6,767$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.58	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked Yes	37c	6,750$2,505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,505.29	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac57…86c5backed Yes	4c	5,870$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8319…470abacked No	62c	5,656$3,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,156.17	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+136.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ad8…93b6backed No	69c	5,205$3,609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,595.63	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Yes	41c	4,889$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef4c…22bebacked Yes	6c	4,800$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No	63c	4,742$3,001 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,741.42	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-13.0wins	-0.28per pick	55cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	4,713$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.39	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes	5c	4,711$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0354…d9e4backed Yes	1c	4,608$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes	10c	4,589$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.4	88	23.9%21 W · 67 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	17cpaid	+51.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc64e…fd52backed Yes	12c	4,559$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.45	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	4,457$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.56	78	7.7%6 W · 72 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	4,364$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.99	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+75.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed Yes	1c	4,355$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes	5c	4,262$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.58	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+61.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe209…3ebfbacked Yes	6c	4,237$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes	5c	4,200$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.6	37	2.7%1 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…4dbfbacked Yes	3c	4,087$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	12c	4,079$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.25	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x359c…6eebbacked Yes	2c	4,000$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4b…541bbacked Yes	5c	4,000$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	16c	3,986$654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$654.23	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-82.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,773$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.29	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce7…b8fcbacked No	52c	3,669$1,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,768.65	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No	66c	3,553$2,332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,220.37	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-8.0wins	-0.24per pick	52cpaid	-61%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes	1c	3,500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22aa…0caebacked Yes	3c	3,471$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	0c	3,250$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	132	16.7%22 W · 110 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	3,098$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.42	76	5.3%4 W · 72 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…5902backed Yes	5c	2,983$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.8	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes	33c	2,955$969 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$969.42	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes	32c	2,868$908 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$908.15	52	50%26 W · 26 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes	25c	2,860$721 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720.83	139	43.2%60 W · 79 L	+7.8wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b87…75d0backed Yes	2c	2,800$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No	51c	2,795$1,425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,369.83	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf304…3d3ebacked Yes	1c	2,745$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.45per pick	5cpaid	+525%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Yes	41c	2,732$1,114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,114.12	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed Yes	35c	2,732$967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$967.35	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-4.6wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a9d…0effbacked Yes	6c	2,679$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4912…633bbacked Yes	3c	2,675$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes	24c	2,600$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611.26	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	28cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aab…6a2dbacked Yes	6c	2,600$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb14f…d825backed Yes	23c	2,596$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7a…d37ebacked Yes	3c	2,568$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.82	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	17cpaid	+38%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cbd…5007backed Yes	3c	2,329$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a54…9879backed Yes	4c	2,301$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed Yes	5c	2,286$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.53	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c7…c0c0backed Yes	7c	2,234$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No	80c	2,233$1,784 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$449.03	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-47%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes	34c	2,185$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$753.26	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec34…d61ebacked Yes	5c	2,171$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	2,162$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.94	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x548b…04e8backed Yes	5c	2,144$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	10c	2,104$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.09	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	15c	2,096$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.06	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x019b…960abacked Yes	5c	2,072$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.72	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Yes	10c	2,050$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.6	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed Yes	9c	2,034$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.11	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef6…8df1backed Yes	4c	2,027$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.05	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Yes	3c	2,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-4.3wins	-0.19per pick	56cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	17c	2,000$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0f…2869backed Yes	1c	2,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-82%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb3…4b43backed Yes	2c	2,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Yes	18c	2,000$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	75	56%42 W · 33 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes	5c	1,928$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.19	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes	7c	1,899$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.82	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?this page
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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