Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f055b9db0a2d64b59b33e03bc8885f05a7c5116b3e2b6bb458011d6e18fb5d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $413,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $371,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $413,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 19,350$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.11 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 12,177$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 3c | 11,699$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.36 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…9d0abacked Yes | 1c | 11,349$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 5c | 10,875$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.93 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.63 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 9,864$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.85 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 8,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c6…1434backed Yes | 3c | 7,880$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +271%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 4c | 7,507$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.96 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbd…5007backed Yes | 2c | 6,820$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4af…8f43backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 4,659$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 2c | 4,414$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0a…49d7backed Yes | 0c | 4,284$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…9189backed Yes | 2c | 4,018$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,339$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 3,127$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 3,048$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 2,986$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,550$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 3c | 2,400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 2,400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…19b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,171$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…d61ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,117$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 1c | 2,038$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,968$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 1,865$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,864$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3269…4bfabacked Yes | 1c | 1,802$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 4c | 1,800$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x89be…be50backed Yes | 2c | 1,743$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…825ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,734$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b18…25e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,732$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 4c | 1,172$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa45…2e20backed Yes | 2c | 1,159$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…93e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,139$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 2c | 1,067$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…af25backed Yes | 4c | 1,016$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -89%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…eb56backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…94f2backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed Yes | 5c | 994.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…ff77backed Yes | 3c | 980$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…40c0backed Yes | 1c | 948.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 2c | 935.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…6064backed Yes | 1c | 932.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Yes | 2c | 910.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd749…bf72backed Yes | 3c | 907.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…084ebacked Yes | 5c | 896.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…af03backed Yes | 3c | 825$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d4…6e9bbacked Yes | 2c | 789.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…c7cbbacked Yes | 1c | 741.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…51b2backed Yes | 2c | 708.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 5c | 651.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ca…0fa1backed Yes | 3c | 580.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044c…db99backed Yes | 5c | 529.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a9…b96fbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…6398backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…578bbacked Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7092…2ed1backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…6dd7backed Yes | 4c | 494.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…0479backed Yes | 5c | 392.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 7c | 277.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…2b57backed Yes | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 5c | 220$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae1…9e37backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?this page
- Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?Yes won
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.