Us Politics · resolved market

Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5a91c9ee50ba80385283714f2a66b1e16d544a682af2af06a8f57fcf1d0233d

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,260,856
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,694,453

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,260,856 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,861 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	21c	459,442$96,301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96,301.23	355	19.7%70 W · 285 L	-16.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No	66c	289,246$189,863 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99,383.12	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	37cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21af…b190backed Yes	0c	179,910$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.91	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05e2…6e12backed No	78c	169,258$131,451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37,806.53	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+118.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc8…e458backed Yes	22c	164,087$36,592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36,591.6	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	12c	104,131$12,648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,648.1	180	33.3%60 W · 120 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes	1c	100,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes	2c	80,844$1,213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,213.25	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.20per pick	26cpaid	-76%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No	65c	67,478$44,024 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,454.79	74	58.1%43 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x870c…5806backed Yes	24c	64,024$15,673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,672.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes	23c	63,771$14,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,400.13	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes	1c	62,490$919 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$919.44	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	14c	58,238$7,964 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,964.32	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe036…616cbacked No	80c	54,271$43,360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,911.96	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+5.3wins	+0.18per pick	42cpaid	+92%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa0bf…7c67backed Yes	0c	51,992$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf936…f310backed Yes	1c	45,000$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No	54c	43,145$23,366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,778.64	79	31.6%25 W · 54 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No	53c	41,388$21,888 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,499.91	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	27cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5138…4fe5backed Yes	6c	40,341$2,376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,376.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes	6c	37,293$2,338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,337.55	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	+3.8wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b87…75d0backed Yes	8c	37,172$3,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,012.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13ce…bf33backed Yes	36c	36,929$13,239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,238.59	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed Yes	0c	33,998$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e8d…dfccbacked Yes	50c	33,666$16,938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,937.85	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	27c	32,526$8,802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,802.17	996	29.5%294 W · 702 L	-73.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed Yes	22c	32,390$7,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,080	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+100.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2428…1e86backed Yes	45c	32,000$14,420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,419.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes	22c	31,074$6,689 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,688.89	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No	68c	30,924$20,893 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,031.24	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed Yes	31c	30,064$9,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,219.15	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	1c	29,663$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.76	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes	52c	27,951$14,442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,442.5	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba7a…055cbacked Yes	11c	27,902$3,053 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,052.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b20…e93ebacked Yes	3c	26,992$793 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$793.14	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc57f…e9d1backed Yes	6c	26,630$1,645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,644.77	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-71%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No	63c	26,541$16,688 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,852.82	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No	56c	26,336$14,653 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,682.44	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+2.5wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x434a…5218backed Yes	1c	25,536$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b47…8f6bbacked Yes	23c	25,014$5,856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,855.56	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes	22c	24,905$5,492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,492.12	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes	13c	24,239$3,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,069.69	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes	3c	24,120$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724.36	151	24.5%37 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-42%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Yes	8c	23,466$1,909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,909.44	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	27c	22,272$6,052 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,051.84	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe541…d45dbacked No	54c	22,222$12,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,222.12	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes	17c	21,751$3,748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,748.05	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ba…4b78backed Yes	3c	20,170$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.01	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	7cpaid	+100.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes	29c	20,162$5,934 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,933.63	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	2c	20,000$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.5	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+4.6wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf42…d3f6backed Yes	0c	19,475$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No	60c	19,349$11,626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,723.41	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc0…a253backed Yes	0c	19,263$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x178c…5ac6backed Yes	0c	19,182$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.11	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4f…6ebabacked Yes	7c	18,990$1,249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,248.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a01…7c0abacked Yes	37c	18,445$6,841 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,840.57	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed No	70c	17,795$12,397 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,397.79	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	20c	17,435$3,417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,416.52	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc932…e6a5backed No	70c	16,682$11,730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,952.31	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	72cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed No	74c	16,000$11,765 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,234.99	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No	65c	15,949$10,318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,631.58	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe594…5d1cbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes	32c	15,000$4,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,799.98	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	28c	14,918$4,216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,216.25	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3146…2ed3backed No	55c	14,890$8,190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,700.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd28c…4e10backed Yes	4c	14,719$632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$631.65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	38c	14,619$5,576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,576.23	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x328d…f7a9backed Yes	34c	14,279$4,926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,925.6	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	65cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3cf…13a3backed No	71c	13,917$9,902 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,015.25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfde…8411backed Yes	0c	13,333$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes	20c	13,287$2,720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,720.19	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xee39…a40abacked Yes	52c	12,910$6,713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,713.06	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed Yes	23c	12,890$2,997 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,997.36	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc20c…e2bdbacked No	56c	12,654$7,098 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,555.86	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+2.8wins	+0.26per pick	29cpaid	+77.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Yes	34c	12,500$4,225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,225	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ae1…52b9backed No	80c	11,679$9,343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,335.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d7…238cbacked No	58c	11,629$6,739 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,890.47	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…81a1backed Yes	0c	11,020$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes	2c	11,012$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.36	283	20.5%58 W · 225 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes	25c	10,820$2,737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,737.19	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-3.7wins	-0.19per pick	29cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x18d4…af03backed Yes	23c	10,817$2,520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,519.58	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…b30bbacked Yes	0c	10,314$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe27…52b7backed No	57c	10,300$5,901 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,398.97	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	7c	10,212$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675.76	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5a…1c78backed Yes	0c	10,089$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes	47c	10,000$4,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,700	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	43.4%23 W · 30 L	+6.3wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x56a5…1bccbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4b…d090backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b5…05cfbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c9c…fc7abacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb427…08a9backed Yes	0c	10,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	2c	10,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x810b…5be8backed Yes	51c	10,000$5,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,099.99	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5db…f982backed Yes	1c	9,746$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.95	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb373…c8b0backed Yes	28c	9,654$2,677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,676.73	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	28c	9,571$2,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,655.65	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8941…cb10backed Yes	40c	9,491$3,756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,756.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes	19c	9,475$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,800.25	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+196.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked Yes	32c	9,405$2,978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,977.64	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x494a…f75ebacked Yes	0c	9,400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?this page
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?Yes won
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event