Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6a6d1ea13981bd303841c58c39c77f31cece3d9a7bd36bf4d3ca015b42c3623
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 363$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 336.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 39c | 256.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 213.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 174.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 171.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 146.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 78c | 136.38$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 25c | 121.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 78c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fe00backed Yes | 52c | 115.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 104.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 38c | 101.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 14c | 80.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 49c | 80.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 74.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 20c | 61.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 20c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 63c | 56.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 21c | 55.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…b997backed Yes | 20c | 53.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 58c | 52.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 30c | 51.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked Yes | 78c | 51.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 50.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 50.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked No | 57c | 41.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 73c | 39.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 77c | 38.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cd…f8a1backed No | 77c | 28.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…a891backed Yes | 66c | 25.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 25.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d9…eec0backed No | 61c | 24.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed No | 61c | 23.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.