Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c0011ded1a00c4a4d85b9996f5ef8496a200bed4c7a0b0d7a096353eed3d821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f7e…3416backed No | 77c | 407.34$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 231.69$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 41c | 223.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 214.93$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 208$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 14c | 205.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 197.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 166.86$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 152.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 104.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 29c | 96.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 29c | 79.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 78.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 33c | 77.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 69.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 32c | 62.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 24c | 59.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 64c | 58.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fe00backed Yes | 39c | 56.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 59c | 54.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 53.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 45.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 65c | 43.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 33c | 38.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 30c | 33.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 68c | 30.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…8d64backed Yes | 37c | 29.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 72c | 26.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 25.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…0f89backed No | 71c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…f19cbacked No | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 64c | 15.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.