Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe16963fd6ada5a5ac929235a2c6427ab5746d3ec7b2cd48f5a9dd823093f6ecd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 47c | 1,281$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.06 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 44c | 760.06$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.18 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 21c | 753.61$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.43 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 25c | 646.86$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.91 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 4c | 597.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 570.93$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.79 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 455.26$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 60c | 451$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.75 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 435.04$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 403$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 386.24$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.25 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed No | 59c | 333.21$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.26 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 330$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.99 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 50c | 295.62$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.83 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 266$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Yes | 28c | 260.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.63 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 38c | 260.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.03 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 236.37$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 30c | 228.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 215.6$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 215.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 213.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 42c | 206.41$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5868…64c8backed No | 72c | 196.52$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 192.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 74c | 185$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.26 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 69c | 184.69$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 163.35$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 65c | 154.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 24c | 139.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 27c | 129.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 127.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 25c | 119.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 119.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 113$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 34c | 108.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 33c | 107.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 39c | 107.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked No | 28c | 105.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 30c | 105$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 104.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 28c | 102.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 30c | 99.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…fc47backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 31c | 87.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 23c | 85.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 80.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 80.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 76c | 75.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 70.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 29c | 67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 25c | 63.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 62.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 63c | 62.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 61.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 61.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed Yes | 33c | 61.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 60.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 34c | 58.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 69c | 56.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 36c | 56.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 54.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 47c | 53.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 33c | 51.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 39c | 51.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 35c | 49.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed No | 24c | 48.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 41c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…6e02backed Yes | 25c | 45.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 65c | 45.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 45.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 37c | 43.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 32c | 42.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 34c | 41.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 41.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 41.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 40.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 71c | 39.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 38.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 60c | 38.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 38.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.