Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc005dcbfe7b2d6a2c5f43c3bfd7d7bc8c1fb243b77ddcdde904cc50f6c03e52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 27c | 1,147$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.5 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 849.66$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 632.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 24c | 399.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 336.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 271.93$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 30c | 244.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 193.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 13c | 183.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 164.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 16c | 156.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked No | 20c | 136.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 18c | 134.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.83 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 15c | 122.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 12c | 112.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 17c | 108.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f22…db25backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 92.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…5399backed Yes | 15c | 84.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 79.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 17c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 20c | 61.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 51.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 22c | 47.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 43.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed No | 24c | 42.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 39c | 40.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 41c | 35.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 33.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf794…aba2backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked Yes | 80c | 15.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.