Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbecbf1cbe29e21d1927e46ff0f33c09a51b0ac27c9891da54b62990a3ad4fabd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 1,048$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.2 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 39c | 1,008$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.05 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 700.44$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 49c | 608.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 42c | 499.98$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.12 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 414.91$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 330.95$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.51 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 56c | 307.4$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.02 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 62c | 291.14$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…8f5ebacked Yes | 38c | 285.21$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 60c | 235.25$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 229.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 227$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 55c | 226.05$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.94 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 49c | 220.92$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 47c | 212$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 209.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 207.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 201.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 58c | 188.01$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 23c | 187.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 183.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 57c | 180.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 170.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 162.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 155$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 49c | 148.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 146.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 50c | 130.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 35c | 128.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 44c | 119.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 117.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 56c | 113.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 112$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 65c | 111.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 42c | 105.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 48c | 104.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 50c | 103.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 58c | 102.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…416cbacked Yes | 47c | 100.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 54c | 94.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 48c | 94.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 48c | 93.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 49c | 92.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 35c | 91.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 66c | 88.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 54c | 87.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 62c | 83.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 39c | 83.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 42c | 82.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 74.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 74.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 53c | 74.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 57c | 72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 50c | 71.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 55c | 68.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738c…557abacked Yes | 41c | 62.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…25cfbacked Yes | 43c | 60.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 54c | 60.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 55c | 59.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 34c | 59.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 58.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 44c | 57.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes | 52c | 57.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…8e4dbacked Yes | 52c | 56.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…7ee4backed Yes | 36c | 53.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Yes | 45c | 51.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…c671backed Yes | 47c | 51.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…365bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 35c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…fc47backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 67c | 49.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2a…ced1backed No | 55c | 48.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 41c | 48.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 38c | 47.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 53c | 46.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…88dabacked Yes | 41c | 46.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 35c | 43.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…f364backed No | 59c | 41.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 60c | 40.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 58c | 40.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.