Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x844c5c9fa357e988dcd3c61d945e0809d077a7669ad49586c0b4ae737ab93c83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 39c | 952.47$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.54 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 30c | 711.78$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.78 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 596.46$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.5 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 18c | 529.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 44c | 398.31$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.26 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 65c | 374.15$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 361.87$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 358.57$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 347$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 314.38$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 60c | 309.91$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.93 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed No | 66c | 293.43$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.07 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 285$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 255.89$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.51 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…d1cbbacked Yes | 33c | 255.64$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 28c | 245$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 239.2$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 212.38$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 211.89$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.58 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 21c | 205.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.65 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked Yes | 50c | 196.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 192.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 49c | 180.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 47c | 166.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 32c | 161$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.07 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 140.32$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.29 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 137.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 66c | 132.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 65c | 128.57$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…0760backed Yes | 41c | 121.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c2…922bbacked Yes | 33c | 119.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 113.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 107.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 33c | 106.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 24c | 105.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 104.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 22c | 99.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 91.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 22c | 87.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 67c | 85.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…0fb0backed Yes | 24c | 84.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked No | 73c | 84.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 28c | 81.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 80.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 25c | 78.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 77.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed Yes | 27c | 75.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 21c | 72.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked No | 35c | 70.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 22c | 69.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 67.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 70c | 65.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 31c | 64.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 64.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 63.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 63.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 63.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…1f77backed Yes | 29c | 62.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 24c | 59.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 57.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…4681backed No | 76c | 52.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 50.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 22c | 50.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 49.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 30c | 49.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5217…78acbacked Yes | 70c | 49.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 26c | 45.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…d09cbacked No | 66c | 43.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 42.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 41.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 74c | 40.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…71bdbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…ef1ebacked Yes | 28c | 39.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 36.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…a594backed No | 76c | 32.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 70c | 31.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 77c | 30.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 44c | 27.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 45c | 27.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 68c | 24.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.