Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93e14c9e4ec58e855908264597430545afc66a1b6dd372b4e19f4126b36d112e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 3c | 1,672$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 17c | 467.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 416.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 13c | 380.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 350.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 16c | 335.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 323.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 296.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 18c | 282.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 16c | 268.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 209.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 197.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 185.23$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c2…922bbacked Yes | 23c | 184.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 183.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 15c | 169.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 12c | 166.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 10c | 156.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 79c | 152.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 152.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 20c | 147.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 24c | 143.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 134.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 15c | 128.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 127.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 117.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 9c | 114.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 13c | 112.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 104.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 20c | 102.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 100.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 11c | 99.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfda3…659bbacked Yes | 12c | 81.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…c680backed Yes | 14c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 15c | 75.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 18c | 65.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 23c | 61.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 22c | 58.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cd…00c4backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 79c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 79c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 79c | 13.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.