TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,353

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,129 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes1c1,063$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8833232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c1,043$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.573,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Yes33c600$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes17c321.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.730428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes31c320.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No68c275.48$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3488628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f9…adbabacked Yes22c255.22$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c248$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.923,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes32c238.12$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.881,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c229.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed No68c218.41$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.94463.6%28 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c213.81$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.474,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No69c212.53$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8376755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes33c199.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5488028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked No76c199.86$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7616840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes29c198.32$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.675,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No71c192.1$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9624466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No70c190.85$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3712329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3478…211cbacked Yes28c181.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+121.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes16c177.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.321,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No77c174.08$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6461760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes24c165.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.333,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c164$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.034,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes34c160$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.823234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No63c158.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1824262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c2…922bbacked Yes31c157.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4f…b7d3backed No76c145.77$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.13141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes37c128.69$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8814645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes14c125.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0815923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes27c110.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes26c107.34$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.47,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes25c107.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8698738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes28c105$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.44,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes38c103.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8425344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes15c102.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2334918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc9f…e346backed No72c99.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No72c98.67$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.171,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2733…5ae8backed Yes14c95.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.755733.3%19 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x259b…453ebacked Yes41c95.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8940%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes28c90.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.433535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1648…c24bbacked Yes18c90$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes24c83.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7366926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes18c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1493034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe16a…dd6dbacked No71c70.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.564264.3%27 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes22c69.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No66c68.96$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.261,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x054d…aa95backed Yes22c66.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c64.05$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.83,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf87…f6d4backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes20c58.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7216335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes18c57.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No76c57.7$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46e…11f4backed Yes32c57.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.473953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e8…2bd9backed Yes30c54.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.280%0 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7c41…500dbacked Yes24c53.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.687627.6%21 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c52.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes28c52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes31c51.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.926431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes31c51.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0328142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x521e…a47bbacked Yes23c47.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x432e…8062backed Yes33c46.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.29616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed No68c43.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.811122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes35c42.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.015549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No79c41.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.851,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No79c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.532,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2114119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6921339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes26c39.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.428441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…ef1ebacked Yes26c38.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.122470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x276b…a5fabacked Yes31c38.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed No72c33.42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.466053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked No69c31.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7316432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x74cd…886abacked Yes32c31.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0840%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No71c31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1112758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa4…f4eabacked No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.94,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No70c28.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.561,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No67c25.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4450373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No78c25.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.512,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa318…ccb3backed No71c22.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.593759.5%22 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No72c22.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked No66c22.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6528742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7537942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7512365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No72c17.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0341051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb040…ef71backed No70c17.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2811362.8%71 W · 42 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No76c17.11$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1182562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e1a…888bbacked No61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.63785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x547b…d0babacked No77c16.82$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8710653.8%57 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+27.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No65c15.54$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.442,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.