TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,717
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,717 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes19c1,973$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.283,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes26c1,733$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.4334624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed No79c1,236$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.198738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed No64c1,102$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.588028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1be…3a18backed Yes23c1,021$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes4c999.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4029520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a7…d1cbbacked Yes31c871.45$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbe…5bcfbacked Yes45c736.15$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x030d…7ce5backed Yes19c677.13$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.122828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes32c671.5$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.821,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes41c642.92$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.723234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c595.3$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.578,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes2c559.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9696620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked Yes54c523.12$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2802035%7 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes8c431.91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8815923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c428.09$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.191,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No79c400.08$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.253,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c6c…8cc1backed No76c394.39$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.393560%21 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No79c379.35$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0333535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes25c352.18$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.735,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c337.74$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.714,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No75c330$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.474,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes12c325.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.816335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No60c322.47$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.144,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes18c311.55$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7513728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No60c299.51$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.991,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No76c290.12$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7924466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed No78c289.86$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.864463.6%28 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes26c284.29$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0134918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c270$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.384,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes18c269.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.528441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes23c259.51$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No73c255.89$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.592,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No73c255.66$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8921268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No70c239.11$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No61c234.49$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.082,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes31c230.28$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4336648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No50c211.22$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.612,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed Yes55c206.84$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6511737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c205.06$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.052,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes11c200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes14c199.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c192.59$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.857,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…6ca1backed No65c189.55$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.715056%28 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0bf…0fb0backed Yes16c187.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.651330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes26c180.47$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5411122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c176.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.22,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes26c174.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1816432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1648…c24bbacked Yes39c169.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.72425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No73c169.88$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x846b…dd84backed Yes18c163.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes19c163.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.041,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes15c151.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0128742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes14c149.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes28c149.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes22c147.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.752,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No68c139.17$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacca…8996backed Yes27c134.93$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.84721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid+26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11c2…922bbacked Yes52c134.2$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.91714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes14c129.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.391,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No55c129.34$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.052,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No77c129$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8998565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No68c128.12$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3797570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c8…b823backed No63c124.69$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.634271.4%30 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes17c121.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3437942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes19c120.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.317,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8330…bc69backed Yes53c116.06$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaf2…7432backed Yes17c115.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No65c114.79$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.171,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No56c113.54$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.812329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes15c111.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.764,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6e4f…b7d3backed No68c110.95$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.953141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c110.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19fc…1a12backed Yes14c105.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+90.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7086…78a2backed Yes17c103.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02ae…890cbacked Yes29c102.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.54233.3%14 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed No66c101.3$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0318837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2cd…00c4backed Yes20c101.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4771031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No59c99.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4125175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x74cd…886abacked Yes55c95.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5640%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8342…52a2backed Yes56c89.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes21c87.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.71,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No65c84.29$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.811,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5d…eab9backed Yes38c84.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes18c83.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8433232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes15c82.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4368645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb696…02d9backed Yes38c81.41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.893951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b4…13b1backed Yes16c79.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3970…d4dcbacked Yes47c76.19$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.09520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c75.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7c41…500dbacked Yes25c75.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.137627.6%21 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cae…e877backed Yes19c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-3.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x64df…fa8fbacked Yes20c73.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f1…c062backed No55c70.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5912057.5%69 W · 51 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes31c69.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc017…a219backed Yes16c67.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8730%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c67.13$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.842,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…bb75backed No68c66.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed Yes35c65.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.