Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x495255d32f1df9ee01fa83525a1f1cf64fe486cc6b5b61d8195172bdf0bc4708
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 57c | 1,069$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.79 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 77c | 428.72$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 285.4$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 273.87$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 34c | 263.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 56c | 197.95$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.78 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 196$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 29c | 190.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 41c | 183.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 11c | 158.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 148.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 54c | 137.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 132.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 43c | 124.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 54c | 123.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 65c | 117.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 114.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 17c | 113.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 102.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 45c | 88.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 32c | 86.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 55c | 81.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 40c | 79.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 75.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 75.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 40c | 72.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 15c | 69.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 45c | 69.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 62c | 68.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked No | 58c | 67.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 67.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 68c | 66.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 66.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 32c | 65.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 61.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 60.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 54c | 50.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 48.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 47.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…bd66backed Yes | 61c | 40.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 39.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 39.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 45c | 38.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 69c | 38.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 47c | 36.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 56c | 33.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 62c | 32.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 44c | 30.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 29.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 62c | 28.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 52c | 27.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 70c | 24.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 55c | 22.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 61c | 17.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3047…f69cbacked Yes | 78c | 14.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.