Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89ff77ee1c11d6c8a480bfaab11eefd6f87b8f2076a065be0706453857dc0958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,538,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,981,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,538,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,282 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fa5…16e3backed Yes | 17c | 81,226$13,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,808.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 8c | 80,638$6,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,833.99 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 8c | 65,566$5,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,290.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 9cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 70c | 61,752$43,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,352.13 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c9…8770backed Yes | 22c | 55,867$12,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,290.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…a6c7backed No | 78c | 55,863$43,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,289.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…bc21backed Yes | 7c | 45,732$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,002.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 77c | 40,439$31,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,296.69 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…4353backed Yes | 52c | 39,587$20,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,576.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 51c | 37,927$19,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,769.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 14c | 37,556$5,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,365.01 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 24c | 35,499$8,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,651.27 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 42c | 34,868$14,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,049.89 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 21c | 33,000$7,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,053.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159c…4485backed Yes | 5c | 32,994$1,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…a3e0backed Yes | 58c | 31,210$17,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,986.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12f4…2e5ebacked No | 72c | 27,334$19,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,687.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 8c | 26,336$2,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102.65 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 25,749$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.34 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 69c | 25,548$17,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,961.87 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 46c | 21,925$10,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,103.77 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…af31backed Yes | 50c | 19,961$10,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,056.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +130%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…8e48backed Yes | 10c | 19,723$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 69c | 19,313$13,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,036.63 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 68c | 18,458$12,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,879.68 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked No | 74c | 17,285$12,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,487.97 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…cecebacked Yes | 64c | 15,868$10,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,121.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…95e6backed No | 61c | 15,500$9,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,064.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 56c | 15,145$8,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,593.1 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed No | 73c | 15,015$11,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,988.7 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 14,550$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.94 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…4ccabacked Yes | 29c | 14,505$4,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,171.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 72c | 13,806$9,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,810.43 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 41c | 13,757$5,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,585.32 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 2c | 13,212$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.65 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba7…fea3backed Yes | 9c | 12,633$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 44c | 11,913$5,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,717.95 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 62c | 11,881$7,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,484.66 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…4999backed Yes | 43c | 11,628$5,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,024.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 26c | 11,096$2,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,913.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 46c | 10,952$5,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,927 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 56c | 10,447$5,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,584.88 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed Yes | 19c | 10,412$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 52c | 10,205$5,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,920.64 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 63c | 10,137$6,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,801.18 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes | 39c | 10,122$3,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,987.3 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 53c | 10,057$5,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,301.01 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 17c | 10,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…0724backed Yes | 24c | 9,361$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,234.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…5cbfbacked Yes | 41c | 9,274$3,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,825.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 9,253$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.93 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Yes | 26c | 9,237$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 54c | 8,307$4,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,860.96 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…9290backed Yes | 37c | 8,070$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3ebbacked No | 72c | 7,800$5,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,155.44 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 55c | 7,703$4,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,210.19 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…17efbacked Yes | 64c | 7,543$4,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,860.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 29c | 7,443$2,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,191.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…fab2backed Yes | 43c | 7,398$3,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,147 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…46a4backed Yes | 49c | 7,345$3,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,589.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…a3b6backed Yes | 1c | 7,230$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 13c | 7,040$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.63 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…6318backed No | 69c | 7,000$4,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,196.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 71cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 7,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 29c | 6,819$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.67 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Yes | 13c | 6,798$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 52c | 6,625$3,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,175.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 63c | 6,497$4,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,104.81 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…cd45backed Yes | 31c | 6,392$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…7b71backed Yes | 44c | 6,238$2,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,768.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 71c | 6,116$4,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.2 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 78c | 6,050$4,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.47 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…e42abacked Yes | 34c | 5,959$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked No | 68c | 5,881$3,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 54c | 5,849$3,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 72c | 5,842$4,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.03 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…7376backed No | 47c | 5,829$2,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,090.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 5c | 5,516$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,229.6 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 70c | 5,473$3,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.26 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…36ddbacked Yes | 16c | 5,447$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed No | 49c | 5,403$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,771.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…e5dcbacked Yes | 33c | 5,365$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…9909backed Yes | 58c | 5,232$3,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,010.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…ec7cbacked Yes | 42c | 5,149$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 37c | 5,143$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.63 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…fdb2backed Yes | 58c | 5,132$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…181abacked Yes | 20c | 5,109$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…987cbacked Yes | 61c | 5,088$3,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,103.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 50c | 5,019$2,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,509.49 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1d…daf0backed No | 59c | 5,000$2,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…708fbacked Yes | 19c | 4,976$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 63c | 4,936$3,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,826.83 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…951abacked Yes | 18c | 4,627$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.27 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c8…f17dbacked Yes | 46c | 4,559$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 50c | 4,549$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,275.99 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…27ffbacked Yes | 54c | 4,484$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,424.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 64c | 4,362$2,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.41 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 12c | 4,278$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.68 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5677backed Yes | 61c | 4,272$2,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,605.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.