MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d583fa2a73b22bd1c632747665f0672a906ee9bf77599529236b07b8b383267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 50c | 3,603$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.16 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 3,010$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.75 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,804$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.82 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Over | 50c | 1,016$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 985.52$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.76 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 291$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Over | 50c | 291$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 267.57$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.02 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 247.42$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 205.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 40c | 178.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 51c | 117.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 58c | 100.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…58c9backed Under | 44c | 97.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 45c | 95.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 45c | 95.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…b5b8backed Under | 44c | 95.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc75…5431backed Under | 46c | 94.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 50c | 61.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 59.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 50c | 57.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Over | 50c | 56.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 51c | 54.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 50c | 52.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Over | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Under | 51c | 43.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 44c | 40.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 55c | 39.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 50c | 36.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 72c | 29.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…365abacked Over | 50c | 28.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 52c | 19.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 67c | 16.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-5.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.