MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5661c5b0ff4188e2f976bb175ed0d2d24a1a18a69b98defb99da52ada69510de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 682.2$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.79 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 651.02$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 416.41$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 396.93$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.63 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 213.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.03 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 192.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 177.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 151.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 136.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 126.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 261 | 48.3%126 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Atlanta Braves | 49c | 73.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 71.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 63.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Atlanta Braves | 52c | 58.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 41.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 41.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 32.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 30.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 29.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…685cbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 28.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a5…a6edbacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 27.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-5.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.