Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbab8d7c902cec7cd0b290238bfe4401c2575efbb83b9cb7bb308659375775683
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 26c | 441.95$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.79 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 5c | 429.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 421.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 50c | 395.89$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 6c | 317.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 279.03$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 11c | 257.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 74c | 244.91$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.83 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 40c | 235.39$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 32c | 230.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 9c | 229.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 192.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked No | 13c | 138.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 40c | 127.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes | 74c | 124.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 30c | 122.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 119.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 9c | 111$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 61c | 109.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 43c | 101.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 24c | 99.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 77c | 99.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 98.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 94.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 53c | 94.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 79c | 94.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 90.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 86.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 84.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1b…4b83backed Yes | 24c | 80.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6128…b3e7backed No | 13c | 77.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 70.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3225…d1cfbacked Yes | 25c | 68.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 70c | 67.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 66.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 25c | 59.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 25c | 59.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 28c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 58.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 19c | 58.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 57.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 53.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 23c | 48.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 25c | 46.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 27c | 45.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 47c | 43.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 40.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 77c | 38.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 66c | 34.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 33c | 33.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 59c | 33.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 38c | 31.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 64c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 66c | 30.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…60eebacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 28.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 80c | 27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78f…cf9bbacked No | 78c | 24.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 55c | 23.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 67c | 22.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked No | 51c | 21.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 71c | 21.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 75c | 20.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 19.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 53c | 19.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 19.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43a…61cbbacked Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…0e5dbacked No | 72c | 17.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 73c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.