Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x196d56691e15fef6bafceb79964511d5a395e697181496e1a73069680295ba1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8794…fa1bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,803$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 55c | 842.26$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.09 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 3c | 459$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 442.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 57c | 407.18$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.07 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 56c | 376.49$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.57 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 4c | 367.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 40c | 331.68$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.57 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 278.31$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 57c | 236.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 235.39$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 220.66$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 41c | 206.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 202.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 52c | 189.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 184.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 174.16$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes | 64c | 152.15$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 39c | 132.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 123.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 17c | 115.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 47c | 109.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 46c | 107.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 93.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 33c | 91.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 53c | 90.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 56c | 87.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 84.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed No | 64c | 82.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 81.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 41c | 81.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 78.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 54c | 77.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 31c | 70.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 60c | 69.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 52c | 64.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 40c | 62.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 60.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 60c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 58.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 40c | 57.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 45c | 55.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3312…3507backed No | 53c | 54.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 49c | 51.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…7034backed Yes | 41c | 48.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 42c | 47.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 47.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 45c | 46.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 59c | 45.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 43.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 42.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 58c | 42.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 53c | 40.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 41c | 39.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 57c | 36.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 45c | 33.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 45c | 33.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…daafbacked No | 62c | 32.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0281…efc4backed Yes | 49c | 30.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd118…7bddbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 29.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 29.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 47c | 29.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4766…6e4bbacked No | 75c | 28.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa94d…cdffbacked Yes | 58c | 27.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0329…db42backed Yes | 52c | 26.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 51c | 25.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 47c | 25.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 25.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…60f4backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…89b8backed Yes | 55c | 25.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.