TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,524

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f64…9600backed No1c3,333$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5510758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe004…a97ebacked No68c3,154$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,147.961883.3%15 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+47.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No2c2,408$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.751,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes65c2,324$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.4225362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes24c1,864$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.612,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No41c1,295$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.782,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No44c1,272$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.134,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No47c1,173$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.715,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes74c1,147$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30329953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9726…1b0dbacked No4c988.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.572842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e7c…411abacked Yes11c971.37$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.871650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No48c963.03$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.1476755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c836.23$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.65,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes6c732.5$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.8952935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes11c659.91$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.912138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes64c627.59$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.2824466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes31c577.21$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.263,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No34c568.52$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.8388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No55c549.22$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.91,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes16c535.2$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.864,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes5c499.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.7934922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x056c…9c96backed Yes68c486.64$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.551833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes22c455.69$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.19837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick18cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes66c421.68$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.9413959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No45c406.83$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.12,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c394.16$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes24c383.15$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.271,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No44c368.75$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.735,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes10c350$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.0491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes20c347.72$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.3241051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No71c346.78$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.051,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No3c339.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes4c331.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.242,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9047…2959backed Yes65c311.77$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.374257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked Yes65c289.83$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5916263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae3…0db3backed Yes80c258.63$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes15c251.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.3930428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No41c238.32$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.151,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c221.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.5417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes55c213.1$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.693759.5%22 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes71c211.92$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.924362.8%27 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62fa…0c8abacked No77c191.39$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.774153.7%22 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2946…8eb4backed Yes27c185.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.222733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes26c176.57$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.4742849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes51c174.79$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.154447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb347…a115backed Yes18c165.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.9311041.8%46 W · 64 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes7c164.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.388,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x840a…7ababacked No47c163.86$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.662254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-15.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5cfc…c4cebacked Yes7c159.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.641414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4265…3741backed Yes7c155$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.42560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+352%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No61c154.83$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5324262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes20c149.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.991,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes18c141.49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc560…adbabacked No70c137.21$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.72825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-63%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c136.61$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.044,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes35c121.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.064,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No64c119.87$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2671159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No32c116.58$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.187,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x21aa…fea9backed Yes65c114.51$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.07475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa739…e31abacked No58c106.47$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.184953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes28c105.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.321,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes19c105$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4713035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x547b…d0babacked Yes26c95.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6810653.8%57 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+27.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f4a…1a1dbacked Yes62c94.09$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes41c92.47$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6436648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes12c90$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.652,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes12c85.38$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.375925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No71c82$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0928456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x336e…bcc3backed Yes25c79.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.964746.8%22 W · 25 L+7.7wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0bf1…e774backed Yes35c78.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+60.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes58c77.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0499962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes28c76.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7448919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No79c76.79$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6125466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f5…9a4fbacked Yes53c75.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes36c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4813050.8%66 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.327669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes14c69.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5610633%35 W · 71 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes19c66$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6340132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes48c66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5234651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e3…6761backed Yes16c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No77c61.42$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.472,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe978…ab29backed Yes64c60.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.856563.1%41 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes33c60.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2331219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No76c59.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0925049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No58c56.11$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked Yes38c52.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6412955.8%72 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No79c50.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.523668.2%161 W · 75 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No61c50.75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.91,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86b…1d8ebacked Yes29c49.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.241723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd209…8dbabacked Yes41c48.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.596752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No49c40.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9721848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked Yes63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1512052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No77c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes49c38.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0226265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes43c38.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No70c38.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.192,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.